It’s looking very likely that the Democrats win the Senate and Governor’s races in Ohio, which is the first significant pickup of the night for Dems on the Senate side. I don’t believe Cynthia Nixon is going to pull it off in Florida, but David Jolley has a better that 50-50 shot of winning the Governor’s race.

The House will be called for the Democrats probably within the next couple of hours. Two Democrats who had their districts gerrymandered to the point that it was thought unlikely that they could survive have both won their races, that same 15-20 swing towards the Democrats holding up.

Talarico is crushing Paxton so far in Texas, but the vote has come in mostly from early vote and urban districts. Still, Talarico is running about 10-12 points better than Beto O’Rourke in 2018, the last competitive Texas Senate race.